All eyes are on Tehran’s reaction after the United States launched precision airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites. Iran is now faced with a difficult decision: a mild response could cost the country’s leadership the favor of the populace, while a forceful response could spark further escalation. Another possibility is that Iran might decide not to retaliate against the US at this time.
Trump Makes a Bait
Three nuclear facilities in Iran were hit by the Donald Trump administration: Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. Since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, the United States has not launched an attack on Iranian facilities until now. But given the strike’s accuracy, it appears that Trump has effectively put the ball in Iran’s court. “The Middle East’s bully, Iran, needs to make peace now. After the airstrikes, the US president declared, “If they don’t, future attacks will be much bigger and much easier.”
The United States has set up a trap. Washington DC would then intensify its effort and promote the “we didn’t start the war” narrative if Iran decided to retaliate by attacking US facilities.
Iran’s Reactions to the Attacks
The “brutal military aggression” by the United States has been denounced by Iran’s Foreign Affairs Ministry, which has described it as a “grave and unprecedented violation” of the fundamental foundations of international law and the UN Charter. The US military’s invasion of a UN member state’s territory and national sovereignty, which was carried out in cooperation with the murderous Israeli regime, exposed the depth of the corruption that permeates American foreign policy and the level of animosity that the US ruling class harbors toward the Iranian people, who seek peace and independence.
Iran has called on the UN Security Council to intervene, saying, “The Islamic Republic of Iran is resolved to defend Iran’s territory, sovereignty, security, and people by all force and means against the United States’ criminal aggression.”
Reasons Iran Might Not Attack the US.
Iran would be irresponsible if it attacked the United States directly now. Aside from the disparity in military prowess, such an assault would provide Trump with justification to go on the offensive. Instead, Iran might allow Trump to claim this symbolic win and carry on attacking Israel. This increases pressure on Tel Aviv and keeps Washington out of the battle. It would appear as though the aggressor is going to war on Israel’s behalf if the US continues to pursue Iran.
Trump’s Diplomatic Predicament
US President Trump has taken a significant risk by entering the conflict against Iran. Trump has consistently opposed “forever wars” waged overseas by prior US presidents, but his recent escalation goes against that rhetoric. Trump faces the danger of offending some of his Republican followers, even as US Democrats have intensified their political attacks in the wake of the airstrikes. Trump can yet claim a significant victory if the US is able to persuade Iran to submit. If not, however, he will be held accountable for entangling Washington in yet another long-running war.
Additionally, Pakistan has supported Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, emphasizing that his participation in the India-Pakistan crisis last month “stands as a testament to his role as a genuine peacemaker.” This is awful optics for Trump’s image. India has emphasized time and again that direct diplomacy between Islamabad and New Delhi led to the truce, with the latter contacting New Delhi after India hit important military installations in Pakistan.
Iran’s Win-Win Choice
Iran has a significant chance to change its nuclear plan as a result of today’s bombings. As a non-nuclear-weapon state, Iran ratified the Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1970 after signing it in 1968. Tehran had previously stated that its MPs were drafting a bill to withdraw from the NPT amid the escalating tension with Israel. It has a better choice thanks to US airstrikes. Now, it may just state that wartime circumstances have left it unsure of what has happened to its stores of enriched uranium. Just the strategic ambiguity this would produce could prevent more strikes and keep Western powers off balance.
Three benefits come with this strategy for Iran: (1) it can postpone a direct conflict with the US; (2) it gives a reason to abandon nuclear transparency; and (3) it gives Iran leverage in any post-war negotiations.